A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
